Survey Expects U.S. Recession by Next Year

  • Economics
Survey Expects U.S. Recession by Next Year

The chances for a U.S. recession by next year have grown tremendously amid increasing protectionism measures, according to a business economic survey.

The poll, conducted by the National Association for Business Economics, surveyed 53 economic forecasters from major U.S. corporations and universities.

The findings indicate that growth is expected to slow in 2019, while showing moderately less pessimism about the outlook risks.

"Increased trade protectionism is considered the primary downside risk to growth by a majority of respondents, followed by financial market strains and a global growth slowdown," survey chairman, Gregory Daco of Oxford Economics said in the report.

"Recession risks are perceived to be low in the near term but to rise rapidly in 2020," he added.

Panelists estimated the U.S. recession before the end of 2020 by 60%, which is double the rate predicted in the survey released three months ago.

GDP growth is expected to fall from 2.9% to 2.6% this year, and 2.1% by next year.

Source: Kataeb.org